Special Article

Cleaner, Cleverer & Competitive Energy Future
Saleque Sufi

World demand of energy is increasing in geometric progression everyday. Most of these are coming from nonrenewable fossil fuels .This is causing increasing amount of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Global warming is causing disastrous consequences on the environment. Climate changes all over the globe are creating great headaches.Sunami. Draught, Typhoon, Flood, Earthquake are devastating many countries, destroying properties, killing people and resources. The massive flood of UK this year is unprecedented, Various US states, Caribbean islands, Mexico are regularly devastated by Typhoons, and Australia is suffering from massive draught. Many European countries suffered from sweltering heat and humidity. South and South East Asian countries China India, Bangladesh, Nepal suffered from devastating flood and cyclone almost every year. Indonesia and Japan suffer from earth quake. These are all mainly due to atmospheric pollution and Greenhouse gas emission. The glaciers in the poles and in the Artic are melting, the sea surfaces are rising. Days are not very far when many coastal areas and deltas will be swept into water if we do not plan for cleaner, cleverer and competitive energy for posterity and aggressively implement. 

Fossil fuels are being rapidly depleted; days of easy oil are gone. Many countries of the world are blessed with abundant basic energy resources; many do not have any .Some have inadequate resources to fuel their growing economy. Yet some have enough but they access to other source and preserve their own for future. Some super powers flex their muscles all over the world to grab the energy source. The underlying reasons for the US led ‘War on Terror “basically emanated from its lust for control over oil of the region.
The world is tottering under the wrath of mother earth due to increasing global warming. Poor innocent people are suffering and struggling for existence. The intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts, we need to reduce emission by 60% to prevent a global environmental catastrophe. This write up focuses on the role, the cleaner energy like Nuclear and Renewable Energy can play in the future energy market and in reduction of greenhouse gas emission. It also addresses the specific cases for Bangladesh. 

World energy demand will increase by 53% between now and 2030.Over 70 % of this increased demand will come from developing countries led by China and India. World oil demand will reach 116mb/d in 2030 from 84 mb/d in 2006. Most of this increase in supply will be met by a small number of major OPEC countries.Non OPEC conventional crude production will peak around 2015 .Global Carbon –Di- Oxide emission will 40Gt in 2030, a 55% increase over current level.China will take over from USA as the biggest emitter of CO2 before 2010.These trends according to world environmentalist groups will accentuate consuming countries vulnerability to severe supply disruption and resulting price shock. They would also amplify the magnitude of global climatic change. 

Strong policy action is essential to move the world onto a more sustainable energy path. It has been found that an alternate Policy Scenario for the future may substantially improve the situation to a great extent. Global energy demand can be reduced by 10% in 2030 –equivalent to China’s total present day consumption. Global CO2 emission can be reduced by 16% - equivalent to current emissions by USA and Canada combined. Improved efficiency can contribute to most of the savings.Increased use of nuclear power and renewables will also help reduce fossil fuel demand and emissions. According to energy specialists just a dozen of critical policy changes in key countries will account for 40% of the reduction in the globalCO2 emission. These will serve all 3 fundamental goals of energy policy: greater security, more environmental protection and improved economic efficiency.

Claude Mandil, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) considers the policies to v be very cost effective. According to him there are additional upfront costs but these are quickly outweighed by savings in fuel expenditures. Demand side investments are more efficient electrical goods are particularly economic. On average an additional $1 invested in more efficient electrical equipment and appliances avoids more than $2 in investment in power generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure.

The energy picture over the last three years has changed appreciably. The realities in the energy market have become harsher and the relative competitive position of fuels has changed. Oil and gas price has increased three to four times . But the economic growth remained robust .The recessionary effects of higher energy price s have been offset by other factors. Coal has become cheaper than natural gas for electricity generation , while nuclear power may in some cases be cheaper than both coal and gas - even where there is no penalty for emitting CO2. Coal has led the recent surge in the global energy demand and is on a stronger growth path than ever before.

What lesson Bangladesh can get from above. It has substantial reserve of high quality coal which has huge demand in many booming economy. If Bangladesh aggressively explores coal in the most environmentally friendly and economic way it can definitely export a part of it after meeting its own demand at a very attractive price to invest the earnings in purchasing Uranium for Nuclear Power Plants. Bangladesh government will also need money for oil and gas exploration.Absolute reliance for future power generation on coal may not be justified. Coal plants will not be cheaper and we may not explore all our coal by surface mining to get the most of it. We will have to pay much higher price for any gas that may come from probable future deep water successes and if we import gas from Myanmar. Bangladesh can meet most of the import bill for gas to be imported and gas from IOCs in future by exporting a part of the coal. Even the power from coal plants will not be cheaper.We must find out the proper fuel mix for our power generation. Depending on future successes in the Offshore and deep sea and our coal exploration successes we may plan for a mix of 50% Gas, 30% Coal, 10% Nuclear and 10% other renewables by 2030.The high quality coal will have higher economic value if we export .But everything depends how we approach our coal mining and whether we can settle issues related to Nuclear power generation as well as gas import.

Nuclear power can be a major contributor in reducing dependence on gas and coal. It can also curb CO2 emission in the most cost effective way. Today the nuclear power accounts for 7% world’s energy and 16% of the world/s electricity.Some estimates those take into account additional economic and political factors predict that the share of nuclear will increase to 27% in not too distant future. At the current rate of consumption uranium deposits that can be economically extracted will last for the next 50-65 years. Less attractive deposits could extend that to 120years. However if there is radical increase in the use of nuclear power uranium resources will be gone in less than a century.But most nuclear power plants now unlock only 2% of the energy contained in the nuclear fuel. Breeder reactors can be used to recycle the fuel and unlock the full potential. Even if the world is converted to entirely to nuclear the breeder reactors can ensure supply nuclear fuel for thousands of years. But the breeder reactors and ancillary facilities have been shunned by many countries as they can be abused to produce materials for nuclear weapons. India is embarking on an ambitious plan to use breeder reactors to extend its small supply of uranium for centuries. Breeder reactors have other advantages too. In the end they produce less highly radioactive waste and can be run at temperature high enough to crack water and produce hydrogen a future hydrogen economy. If proliferation issues can be controlled breeder reactors can be controlled, nuclear can last for millennia.

Bangladesh has started to think seriously about nuclear power generation off late. Bangladesh can never have nuclear arms production ambition .So it may opt for breeder reactors for fuel economy. South Korea and Russia have already assured support. But before the government embarks on a program of nuclear energy it must be prepared to commit to a nuclear future. Aside from the questions of safety and nuclear waste disposal it must be known if the option will be economically feasible in the long term.There are lots of unanswered questions surrounding an energy policy that that includes nuclear power. A public enquiry must determine the long term costs and see how nuclear power stacks up against future developments in other energy sources. Energy security including the long term availability of fuel and a continuous supply need to be ensured.This is possibly the proper time for Bangladesh to seek answers to the questions and take decisions. We may look for 1000MW nuclear generation for a start. The planning, and implementation may take 7-10 Years. Our ultimate target should 10% nuclear power generation in the long term. The environmental costs must also be considered. Nuclear power and most renewable produce very little greenhouse gases about 100 times less than that produced by coal or gas fired power plants. This may however change in twenty years as increases in efficiency and the technology of carbon sequestration takes off. Coal can potentially end up with a very similar cost to nuclear power both in terms of dollar value and greenhouse gas emission.

Bio fuels can make a significant contribution in meeting the future demand of transport industry. It may reach 4% of road fuel use in 2030 up from 1% now. USA ,The EU and Brazil account for bulk of the global increases and remain the leading producer of bio fuels .Rising food demand , which competes with bio fuels for existing arable and pasture land , and need for subsidy in many countries will constrain the long term potential of bio fuels production using the current technique. New bio fuels technologies being developed toady, notably lingo-cellulosic ethanol, could allow bio fuels to play much bigger role - if major technological and commercial challenges can be overcome.

Bangladesh may try bio fuel option.We have many areas which can grow plants for bio fuels. Vast lands in greater Sylhet district and Chittagong hill tracts- Rangamati, Bandarban, Cox’s bazar, some areas in Rajshahi; Rangpoor can be utilized to grow the plants which may be used for bio fuels. We must spend money for research.

Investing in renewable electricity future may save 10 times the fuel costs of a “ business as usual “ fossil fuelled scenario, saving $ 180 billion USD annually and cut cO2 emission in half by 2030 as appeared in a joint report by Greenpeace and European Renewable Energy Council ( EREC) In their global analysis entitled “ Future Investment – A sustainable Investment Plan for the power sector to save the Climate” demonstrate a powerful economic argument for a shift in global investment towards renewable energy ( including solar , wind, hydro, geothermal and bio energy)The report gives the financial rationale for Green peace’s “ Energy [R] evolution” a blueprint for how to cut cO2 emissions by 2050, while maintaining global economic growth. 
The Energy [R] evolution needs an extra global annual investment of $22 billion in clean and renewable power plants on top of current expenditure .The fuel cost savings in the scenario , of up to $202 billion per year, means this will pay for itself ten times over. Meanwhile, converting the massive subsidies of $250 billion a year that coal and gas receive to clean , safe renewable energy will cover the cost of the Energy[R] revolution and much more. The report stresses on the urgent need for a decisive action now. In the next decade many existing power plants will retire and will need to be replaced and emerging economy such as China, India and Brazil are rapidly building their infrastructure. Renewable industry is willing and able to deliver the power plants the world needs. The requirement is the right climate and energy policy. Decisions made in the next few years will continue to have an impact in 2050.

China and India, the world’s fastest growing energy markets are the special focus of the 2007 edition of World energy Outlook to be released on 7 November 2007.How fast will demand in these dynamic economies rise? How will it be met? And what impact will their energy choices have on the rest of the world?
The Outlook will update the global energy scenario. It will also feature 3 key energy scenarios to 2030.
- the Reference Scenario shows the trend in surging energy consumption and CO2 emissions under existing government policies.
- The Alternative Policy Scenario shows how policies driven by concerns for energy security, energy efficiency and the environment, under discussion but not yet adopted , could curb growth in energy demand and
- The High Growth Scenario analyses what would happen to energy use if current high levels of economic growth in China and India persists through the projection period.

New and more detailed models for both China and India allow a more comprehensive analysis of different future energy paths.

WEO 2007 analyses the impact of rising energy use in these countries on: 

• international energy prices;

• investment needs and financing arrangements;

• energy-related greenhouse gas and other emissions;and

• energy and non –energy international trade flows.

The prospects of coal use, the role of nuclear, renewables, energy - efficiency improvements and urban and rural energy poverty in these two countries are examined in depth.

Bangladesh Government while finalizing its National Energy policy must carefully examine the WEO 2007 as these will definitely affect Bangladesh Energy scenario. The two emerging economies are the next door neighbors .Bangladesh can take a leaf and can be benefited if they can partially exploit from the huge energy demand of the two countries. Bangladesh in any case will need to align its energy strategy with global situation. Bangladesh can be the energy hub of Regional energy trade and can be very prudent in exploiting its own reserve in the most economic way. We have finite energy resources .We must utilize it in the most economic and rational way. Get the most out of it. Toady or tomorrow we will have to import energy. Due to our unique geographical location we can benefit from the regional energy grid. So we must keep our eyes open. We must follow the regional developments with prudence. Bangladesh will very soon have to adjust its domestic energy price to world price. A weak econmomy can not go on subsidizing the energy for indefinite period. We need massive investment at every segment of energy to overcome the huge deficit, increase efficiency and enhance the capacity of public energy utilities.