Special Article

Gas Sector Development Plan
Khondkar Abdus Saleque

Energy & Mineral Resources Division has now come up with its contingency plan for meeting the ongoing as well as upcoming gas supply problems the nation is facing and will be facing soon. The nation is getting increasingly panicked with the apprehension spread in many different ways mostly by people who are in no consideration reservoir experts or energy professional about the reserve to run out too soon for comfort. 

The present production capacity of gas is still above the demand. But due to transmission and supply constraints some areas of gas grid, specially Chittagong area, is a in a spot of bother. We are in this situation as we did not have a gas sector master plan and always preferred crisis management. We never cared for developing our professionals, placing the right people in the right place. 

Bakhrabd Gas field reservoir was damaged from unimaginative over production ignoring the advice of specialists, and the same thing happened in Shangu. We never foresee these problems and never had contingency planning. Authority did not take appropriate action in time to set up compressor station at Bakhrabad gas field in time. This led to serious struggle at some stage. 

While the problem of earlier production collapse of Bakhrabad could be mitigated by constructing Ashuganj-Bakhrabad pipeline the problems emanating from Shangu syndrome can not have any easy solution. However, let us see what the EMRD is planning and what may be the probable impacts.

The program that EMRD Secretary and Energy Advisor announced seems to be comprehensive. BAPEX will be preferred to undertake several explorations and development to increase the reserve resource base. EMRD also announced some maintenance works of national gas grid to increase efficiency. Let us try to have an analysis of the program announced.

BAPX should have preferred and grown as a dynamic national exploration company by this time no one should contest that. But for several reasons that did not happen. Petrobangla always unleashed severe maltreatment. The step motherly attitude has destroyed its potential to a great extent. It now can hardly run one drilling at a time and organize one seismic crew. Giving them several exploration work and asking them to create magic within a very challenging timeframe may not bring expected result. 

Semutang is the most potential drilling option now. It must attain highest priority. BAPEX may simultaneously drill two more wells at Salda. In the kext priority comes the second well at Shahbajpur and exploration at Srikail and Begumganj. Among other works the work over of Bakhrabad and Meghna gas fields can be given to them. The other works identified for them are OK but these may not get immediate priority. Given the present insufficient numbers of competent professionals and managers we may not expect that it will complete everything successfully within very short time to solve all the problems. 

We must realize its existing capacity and be very practical. Procurement of a modern rig and training the professionals on priority basis must be done. Drilling at Kapasia and Sundalpoor can be taken up at a later stage.

EMRD program also indicated two new wells at Feni and one in Sangu. Given the tiny reserve of Feni it may turn out as waste of time. We have seen enough of Sangu efforts will only add cost and may not bring expected result. No one also should not add figure with their plan for new ventures in Semutang and Begumganj. No one can forecast about this unless the wells are drilled and tested. These may give wrong signals. Begumganj is a tiny structure. It is only after drilling and appraisal we may come to a conclusion about recoverable reserve and rate of production.

Cairn should rather focus on Mognama and Hatiya. They have repeatedly assured that these two are significantly large structures. They should have explored here at least two years from now without struggling with depleting Shangu. But we did not push them. We now need to see these are not merely stunts. Discovery of significant reserve in these structures will be really very meaningful for our gas industry.

It is encouraging that plans are now being made for on-stream pigging of Transmission pipelines. Bon stream pigging of Bakhrabad -Chittagong pipeline is overdue. The last pigging was conducted in 1994. It is not an easy work. It will need the dedicated effort of a very committed group of professionals. Fortunately GTCL has Sanwar, Jameel and a very competent young engineer. The pipe failure at ringmain will make the pigging of ringmain meaningless unless arrangement for storing condensate can be made at 16”/20”manifold at the southern side of Karnaphullly and 20”/24” manifold at BFIDC, Kalurghat. The fact that there was a fire following the rupture of the Karnaphuli crossing at Kalurghat amply demonstrates that there is condensate in the line. 

The pigging may be done either during Eid-ul-Fitr or Eid-ul-Azha vacation when the gas demand goes down. Pig in these lines must not be run at any speed above 4-5 miles per hour. The tendency of some of the young guns must be controlled. This pipeline has been severely internally corroded and eroded .We had enough evidence of this since last pigging. Running the pig at higher speed may injure the pig cups causing by passing and bypassing. Pig may get stuck and cause panic. 

The author may venture making a comprehensive pigging program if time permits and send it to GTCL. Know this pipeline so well. On-stream pigging will definitely increase delivery efficiency. But due to various reasons this pipeline has become an immediate candidate for intelligent pigging. The section from Mirersarai to Faujdarhat may have retained marginal thickness now. Several pipes of this section had pronounced external corrosion due to initial storage at TSP yard. It had started with marginal thickness when laid. Subsequent problems of Bakhrabad gas field must have made this section loose more metal. If we do not determine the actual condition and try to operate the pipeline at originally designed MAOP 960 PSIG the pipe may fail.

In any case to increase deliverability to Chittagong above 300 MMCFD from National Grid we must initiate action to build another pipeline from Feni to Faujdarhat and start working on compressor station at Feni ICS. Unless we take up this initiative now all our actions for increasing gas delivery to Chitagong may not bring any meaningful result.

Pigging is also required for North-South Pipeline and A -B gas pipeline. We should remember the on-stream pigging is a routine operation of transmission system operation. If these are done regularly it will not cause any operational problem .The optimum capacity of transmission system will be available wall the time. We should also remember the compressors at Muchai and Ashuganj will create opportunity to run the pipe lines at MAOP. But if we are not sure about the metal loss of the pipelines we may be risking the lines to rupture and failure. Failure of any transmission pipeline in and around human habitation may bring disastrous consequences.

The vision for the deepwater drilling seems OK. But before we embark on it we must be ready for utilization plans also. This exploration is very expensive. If we have majors in the exploration, they will need incentives. If we prempt unnecessary concerns we may not get competent frontline companies. Higher price is OK. But what happens if there is a big discovery and we do not allow any export? Will any company like to invest and keep it idle? Anyway, that is far down the line. Let us start without delay.

Do not know what kind of assurance EMRD wants to start the coal mining? Why they are not allowing the surface mining? It is potentially the most safe and economic way to recover most of the shallow coal. The concerns of water management are unfounded in modern mines. The relocation of affected people and environment management must be strictly controlled. Please start one surface mine without delay. We need coal immediately for at least 2-3 base power plants. If the mining starts soon we may set up these plants before 2012.

It is nice that Energy Advisor has admitted about the lack of co-ordination among Gas and Power divisions. This has created lot of confusions. It is for the benefit of the nation that they work together. We expect the energy situation to only improve from now. Good Luck.