The economies of the developing world, especially in China and India, are going strong. With more than 9 percent GDP increase a year China's economy is almost overheating. The Indian progress is not as fast as the China's but its economy is also gaining speed. Such robust economies driven by higher demand is also pushing the demand for world's energy up. The 2004 International Energy Outlook report release in mid-April by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Energy Department has projected that the energy demand of the developing countries will outpace that of the industrialized nations.
It says, the developing world's demand for energy is projected to about double over the next two decades as economies and population in developing countries grow faster than those in industrialized countries. Energy demand in the developing world is likely to increase by 91 percent between 2001 and 2005 with emerging economies of Asia driving demand growth, says the U.S. agency. The expected increase compares with a 33 percent rise in energy demand projected for the rich nations and 54 percent for the entire global economy. Emerging Asian markets, especially China and India, are projected to increase dramatically their consumption of coal and oil and expand their use of nuclear power.
Even though natural gas is the fastest growing source of primary energy, oil will remain the dominant fuel type, with much of a 57 percent increase in demand expected to come from the United States and the developing Asia. Oil prices are expected to fall after 2004 to $25 per barrel – not adjusted for inflation – and then rise slowly. According to the EIA report world oil prices rose by almost $10 per barrel over the course of 2002 and remained high throughout 2003. That is now expected to drop after 2004 to $25 a barrel and rise slowly to 2025, reaching $27 per barrel. World oil use increases from 77 million barrel per day n 2001 to 121 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the increase is expected to happen in the United States and in developing Asia. The United States, China and the rest of developing Asia account for nearly 60 percent of the projected growth in world oil use.
The report has dealt with the use of all types of fuel. It says natural gas demand is the fastest source of world primary energy. Over the 2001-2025 forecast period, consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by 67 percent to 151 trillion cubic feet by 2005. The projection for natural gas use is lower than in last year's outlook, when gas demand was expected to climb to 176 trillion cubic feet n 2025. The lowest forecast this year is the result of slightly lower assumptions for worldwide economic growth, a slower projected decline in the world's nuclear power generation, and concerns about the ling-term ability of natural gas producers to bring sufficient resources to market at prices competitive with those of other fuels.
We believe the report's deliberations on the natural gas should interest Bangladesh, also a producer of natural gas. Bangladesh has long been dithering on a decision whether to export its natural gas or keep it in reserve. The decision so far against the export of the country's natural gas has already affected its growth. International oil companies that converged into Bangladesh to prospect and produce gas and an expected export have found the going here very tough. Some of them have already wrapped up their business here selling off their wealth to those who are still hoping that a change of mind will eventually occur in Bangladesh. We think that with the world's demand for energy growing so fast, particularly in neighboring India now can be the best time for Bangladesh to make a firm move in favor of exporting its natural gas. Or else countries like India are not going to wait eternally for Bangladesh to make a decision. Because India will be in a hurry to meet its higher energy demand -- especially the demand for natural gas -- and will purchase from whatever is possible. Myanmar is already a big candidate to export natural gas to India by a pipeline through Bangladesh. This should serve as a signal to Bangladesh. We should also not forget that a growing economy in Bangladesh is also driving the country's energy demand higher. So, why a positive and brave action should be put on hold until it is too late to catch the train?