Asia Oil Imports Hit All-time High

EP Desk

Oil demand in Asia hit a peak at 21.6 million barrels daily last year and the region's dependence on oil imports reached an all-time high at 64 percent, Hawaii-based FACTS Inc said in a report released for April.
According to international wire services, the consultants forecast that Asia's dependence would reach 69 percent by 2010 based on a demand projection of 25.2 million barrels per day (bpd) as regional output of crude stays flat but demand continues to grow.
FACTS bases overall demand on crude processing plus direct use of crude oil and net imports of refined products.
“By 2010 and beyond, the Asia-Pacific region is likely to produce only 30 percent of the total oil it requires,” the consultants said in an Energy Briefs report. “The role of the Middle East will be rising despite room for more oil imports from West Africa, Russia, and to a lesser extent Central Asia and Latin America.”
The 2003 demand estimate was 350,000 bpd below the 21.95 million bpd that the International Energy Agency (IEA) says Asia consumed last year.
Japan and South Korea remain most reliant on Middle East crude in their refining slate with Japanese dependence at 85-90 percent and Korean at almost 80 percent in the first three quarters of 2003, FACTS said.
It said China, the second-biggest consumer in the world after the United States, imported on average 400,000 bpd more crude last year for a total 1.8 million bpd, with Middle East barrels accounting for 50 percent.
FACTS said Chinese buying of African crude shot up about 40 percent to 444,000 bpd from 316,000 bpd in 2002, with 46 per cent coming from Angola, 28 percent from Sudan, 15 percent from Congo and seven percent from Equatorial Guinea. China also imported 105,000 bpd of crudes from Russia in 2003, up from 61,000 bpd a year earlier, with the majority sent via railway.
India imported about 1.8 million bpd of its crude requirements in 2003, up about 200,000 bpd, with 70-72 percent from the Middle East. West African grades made up 13 percent of imports with Nigeria meeting the bulk of the volumes.
FACTS estimated that crude and condensate production in Asia reached 7.47 million bpd in 2003, down from 7.52 million bpd in the year earlier. Output slipped mainly in Australia and Indonesia, while Thailand and Malaysia saw gains.


Barrel of Crude for $51 in 2025?

EP Desk

Crude oil prices will increase gradually and reach $51 a barrel by 2025 because of inflation and rising energy needs in developing nations, according to the US Energy Department projection.
A report by the department's Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries producers are expected to still be the major oil suppliers in 2025. They now account for about a third of the oil being pumped.
Crude oil prices have been steadily rising since the late 1990s.
The sharpest jump in demand will come from China and other Asian countries. Demand in the United States also will continue to increase, too. “The United States, China and the rest of developing Asia account for nearly 60 percent of the projected growth in world oil use,” the EIA said.
Coal and oil will remain dominant fuels despite concerns about climate-changing greenhouse gases, the report said.
“Over the past several decades, oil has been the world's foremost source of primary energy consumption, and it is expected to remain in that position,” the agency said.