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Bangladesh Perspective of SAARC Energy Ring
Saleque Sufi
The potential for meaningful regional cooperation for alleviating the energy crisis that looms large in the countries of the SAARC region was always there. Energy professionals and various stakeholders have full realizations of its impacts. Talks and discussions are going on for several years. But there has been very little meaningful progress so far. The region has limited basic energy reserve of nonrenewable fossil fuels to meet the huge hungry market. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan have natural gas, India and Pakistan have little oil. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have coal. Nepal and Bhutan have hydro electricity. India and Pakistan have surplus refining capacity of crude oil. Sri Lanka and the Maldives do not have basic energy reserve. Individually the countries of the region do not have capacity to harness and exploit the reserve in the most optimum way. The other renewable source like solar, wind and nuclear have very limited contribution although two countries of the region have nuclear weapon capability. Some countries adjacent to the region like Iran, Myanmar and Thailand have tradable surplus of energy. But the prospect of SAARC energy ring still remains in the process of brain storming only. Political commitment is sadly missing, bureaucracy is dampening all efforts. So most of the discussions, seminars and symposium are moving around the same semi circle. We wonder if countries like USA, Canada, Mexico can trade energy, if the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France can share their resources, Bolivia, Peru and Brazil can have trans border energy trading, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore can have energy trading why the smart people of SAARC region can not progress on the issue. Bangladesh is in a desperate situation. For various reasons we failed to develop our limited energy resources to meet our own requirement.
In recent past we failed to create facilities to meet even 60% of our suppressed power requirement. We have failed to develop gas and power sector in an integrated manner to complement each other. We could not adopt strategy to explore our substantial high quality coal reserve. Now the long-term energy security has become highly critical. Apart from developing our own finite resources in a more planned and aggressive manner it has become imperative for us to aggressively explore the regional energy trading option. Bangladesh is in a take off stage. Once the political situation stabilizes we will be in the thresh hold of industrial renaissance. We will require stable energy supply infrastructure to avail and contain the probable inflow of massive flow of FDI. Hence for our own sake we should change our mindset and take advantage of the changed situation. Hence it is Bangladesh, which should crystallize and catalyze regional cooperation in energy generation and trading efforts.
We give a deep thought and try to critically analyze the underlying theme and essence of the Islamabad Declaration by the Heads of State or Government during the 12th SAARC Summit, January 2004, regarding setting up of a South Asian Energy Cooperation including the concept of an energy ring. It said very eloquently “The SAARC Member States shall cooperate in the development and use of all forms of energy, whether commercial, noncommercial, renewable or nonrenewable, in modalities that may be appropriately designed by them for this purpose so as to achieve the objective of creating an Energy Ring in South Asia.” In three years since then how much have we achieved? We need to do some serious soul searching to find out why we failed to make any breakthrough. We need to change our colonial mindset. We need build mutual trust and confidence among one another. Politicians must commit themselves to the long-term energy security of the region. It is the question of survival of billions (about 23% of world population) of people of the region. People must be pragmatic, proactive. Let us now see what Bangladesh can achieve from such cooperation.
Petroleum Products:
Bangladesh imports most of its petroleum products and spends a significant portion of its foreign currency reserve in importing crude oil and petroleum products. The lone refinery meets a part of the refining requirement. Import of petroleum puts Bangladesh in double jeopardy. It has to pay high international market price for import while the domestic price is much less. Consequently the relevant agency Petroleum Corporation is on the verge of bankruptcy. Due to price differential across the border substantial POL products are smuggled across to the neighboring countries. Is it possible that the South Asian Countries can agree on a price parity of petroleum products in the region so that the smuggling through porous borders can be controlled? Pakistan and India have surplus refining capacity. Can countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka get POL products at preferential price from India and Pakistan? Bangladesh may think of setting up a second refinery to augment its own refining capacity.
We may take lesson from Singapore and learn how a tiny country is immensely benefited from petroleum refining. Ultimately we have to drastically reduce our dependence on liquid petroleum. CNG network needs to be expanded more aggressively. Now we have gas transmission pipelines from Kaptai to Ishwardi. Very soon we will expand it to Khulna. It's time we convert majority of our automobiles to CNG. We may gradually discourage import of diesel vehicles and give additional incentives to NGV. We may follow Pakistan in this respect. Reliable power supply in the rural areas will reduce the requirement of diesel for irrigation. We have to explore whether LPG and even CNG can replace diesel for running irrigation pumps.
Power Trading;
It now appears none of the countries of the region excepting Pakistan is now in a position to trade power. Bangladesh cannot logically access power from Pakistan. Nepal, Bhutan has huge potential to for hydro electricity. But the development will take several years. Huge investment and various stringent environmental constraints will delay these initiatives. So even if India agrees to let it Power trunk line to wheel power from Nepal and Bhutan Bangladesh may not get it for several years. But the countries of the region can take joint initiative to develop hydro electricity in the land locked mountainous country of Nepal and Bhutan and at some distant future can access the hydropower. Despite of above there must be positive action to integrate the power transmission grid of India, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Pakistan creating facilities for trading of any surplus as and when possible. Judging from the protracted discussions that we need to mature initiatives from the conceptual stage we must start meaningful actions now. We have several examples before us to replicate. But the Energy Regulatory Commissions of each country need to be strengthened to regulate such trading.
Bangladesh has substantial reserve of high quality coal. But for appropriate strategy and clear policy it could not exploit it to derive the desired benefit. For years people are debating over mining alternatives. Can a country starving for energy afford to keep billion dollars worth of coal underground for indefinite period? Is it very difficult to determine the most cost effective and the safest way of mining. For the energy security of the nation cannot we afford to relocate and rehabilitate few thousand affected population if open cup mining is the most appropriate and economically viable option. Cannot we learn from Indian and Pakistani experience? What have we learnt from failed Barapukuria underground mining? If we can take up aggressive mining we can set up large size power plants in mine mouths and in 5-7 years we can become self reliant on power generation and protect our dwindling gas resource for more economic use. We may even be in a position to trade power during off peak hours. But while developing coal resource we should also think about clean coal technology, which Australia is now developing in a very aggressive way. We cannot contribute in any significant way to global warming through green house emission of obnoxious gases.
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas seems to be in a better position for trading although countries of the region do not have enough of their own to share among themselves. But potential import from adjacent neighbors must be aggressively explored. Myanmar has substantial gas reserve both offshore and onshore. The proposed Myanmar- India pipeline across Bangladesh got stuck at some stage due to stubborn attitude of Bangladesh and India. It could be a win-win deal for all concerned leaving aside the bilateral irritants, which came on the way. The pipeline was thought to be open access having provision for injection and siphoning of f gas of each country within its periphery. With great difficulties we could convince strong Indian contingent to initial on a draft MOU, which could benefit Bangladesh in many ways. Anyway the there bilateral issues may be resolved at a different forum. But the other aspects may be reopened to conclude the issue if possible. If the pipeline is routed through Cox's Bazar-Chitagong- Comilla-Brahmanbaria, and then go all the way to Jessore we can be immensely benefited. We can utilize some capacity of this pipeline to transport our own gas to Southern region.
We can import gas for use in Cox's Bazar, can meet part of Chittagong region from the gas of this pipeline, if in future we have significant discovery in the Bay of Bengal that gas can also be evacuated for our own use through this pipeline. It is not clearly known whether India and Myanmar are still keen to move the initiative. But Bangladesh for its own sake can reopen the discussion. India will not have any objection to conclude the other bilateral issues with Bangladesh. We have agreed for direct Rail communication between Dhaka and Kolkata and may allow them to extend it to Agartala. Hence India must allow trading among Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan through the chicken neck without any interruption. Trading through this route and facility for Nepal and Bhutan to use Bangladesh port facility will benefit these countries immensely. India must agree to this for SAARC fraternity. The pipeline if built will create gas security for this region for a while. Bangladesh can have assured supply for its present and upcoming gas based power plants in various regions especially in Chittagong. We can earn substantial revenue as wheeling charge and land lease. Bangladesh will not require investing. Moreover, our GTCL may earn through operating the Bangladesh part of the pipeline. So why should not we take the pioneering role for it. The issues to be discussed are the tri nation agreement which must outline the ownership, implementing strategy of the project, land lease, tariff, capacity dedication, pricing of gas, operation and maintenance of the pipeline etc. There should be a big problem as there are several live examples to refer. Bangladesh and India may lose the opportunity as China is very keen to take the most of Myanmar gas and they have huge requirement. So there is hardly any time to lose in wilderness.
Some people think about Iran-Pakistan- India pipeline to extend to Bangladesh. It is a far cry and remote possibility. Myanmar- Bangladesh - India pipeline is more realistic and more beneficial for us as it will enter Bangladesh first and traverse across. We will get wheeling charge for every bit that pass through while on the other for gas from Iran we will pay substantial wheeling charge to countries in between. Gas will be much more expensive.
Exploration for Hydrocarbon:
Bangladesh is planning to start massive exploration for Gas and oil in the deepwater offshore blocks. To make this operation successful Bangladesh will require active cooperation of India. The maritime boundary of Bangladesh, India and Myanmar requires defining and establishing prior to engaging international operators for exploration to avoid future complicacies. Even after that there may be discovery on the edge when the sharing of resources and joint development will be required .The countries of the region must resolve such issues on the basis of sovereign equality. Bangladesh and India also cooperate in sharing knowledge’s about managing contracts with IOCs.
Human Resource Development:
We will need capacity building of our energy companies. Our own exploration Company BAPEX do not have enough competent professionals to run its own exploration and production activities. Our reservoir engineering aspect is extremely weak. We can share the experience of India and Pakistan. We not only need to do our own work we need to monitor the activities of International Oil Companies. So we must try and achieve as much as possible to develop our own human resources through cooperation with Indian and Pakistani counterparts. Even our Gas Transmission Company needs support and assistance from similar Indian and Pakistani companies to efficiently manage transmission resources. SCADA and Gas compressor stations are new addition to our system, which India and Pakistan are managing for a long time. We should try to learn from their experience. We have entered into active mining. But we do not have required mining experts. India and Pakistan can definitely help us in training mining professionals. Our undergraduates may be sent to both countries to study mining engineering and technology. India and Pakistan have trained human resources and have facilities for human resource development. Bangladesh must train its professionals of Gas and Mining. India and Pakistan can definitely assist in this area.
Make Hay While The Sun Shines:
We must try to make hay while the sun shines. We are in the high noon of our national life. The prevailing socio economic and law and order situation is probably the best Bangladesh experienced ever since its emergence. Right people are in the control of affairs. They understand and appreciate the requirements and do not have any self-interest in anything. They are very focused and farsighted. Moreover, the people are solidly behind them. If they can take pragmatic initiatives without giving way to any myths and improper propagandas we can set the ball rolling. Political government in future for their own survival will keep the works going. So it is now or never. Bangladesh must be very candid and open in its approach to regional cooperation. But nothing will happen if India does not come out of its complacent big brotherly attitude.
Paper tigers always opposed the induction of International Oil Companies in exploration of petroleum. But just imagine what would have happened if Bibiyana, Sangu and Moulvibazar gas fields were not discovered. We have not developed our own BAPEX and systematically destroyed the capacity of Petrobangla companies over the years. Some contracts with some IOCs were concluded in a very unfair way. Some of their operation caused damage to our resources. But for that we should be blamed more than anyone else. Instead of exercising our contractual rights we let them of the hook at the appropriate time possibly in exchange of personal gains. The reverses in IOC development and operation could be avoided if we had honest and competent monitoring organization of our own.
Any meaningful cooperation in the region will require meeting of minds of the parties. It will require strong political will and commitment. Meetings and seminars will not solve problems. Let there be a time bound action plans. Time is first running out .If we fail to exploit the opportunities we will lose it forever. The energy available in our next door will be directed elsewhere. The SAARC countries will remain the poorest countries as far as energy intensity is concerned. Bangladesh must think positively and squeeze maximum from the SAARC energy cooperation initiative.
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