The situation had not been so worst in the recent years as it is now. With the main opposition Awami League and some smaller parties are presently, what they say, in the final stage of “oust government movement”, political observers said the existing horrible picture in the utility services itself can generate a massive movement. If the prospect of the huge movement launched by political parties is not enough to overthrow a government, they said, it would be sufficient to project the failure and inefficiency of the Jamaat-BNP coalition especially in the utility sector, apart from improving the law and order situation and checking corruption.
There are enough reasons that a citizen would feel disturbed and lodge complaint. The water supply in the capital had never been adequate, but it is now in the worst level. Where there is supply of water, in many cases it is not usable. While the adequate stream of piped water is linked to enough electricity supply, the power generation mainly depends on proper flow of natural gas.
With this arithmetic in supply situation, the state-run corporations in the gas and power sector are pointing their fingers at each other. The Power Development Board (PDB) engineers complained about low pressure of natural gas. On the other hand, engineers at Bangladesh Oil, Gas and Mineral Corporation (Petrobangla) said that the pressure problem had been for one day on March 24 and they could overcome the trouble.
The Petrobangla officials also said a minor pressure problem exists at Ghorashal point which is not a new development. The PDB, they said, knew about it much before the present crisis and was agreed to follow a rationing in receiving gas from the point. As construction of a loop line is underway to overcome the pressure problem at Ghorashal through which gas is also supplied to Dhaka North, the agreement was that the PDB would get full supply of gas during its 6-11pm peak hours, but would follow the rationing during the daytime. The rationing was agreed to boost gas pressure in 19 hours to ensure proper supply during the peak hours for electricity.
“Initially they maintained the understanding on rationing, but broke it pushing the gas supply to industrial belts, including Savar and Demra, in a vulnerable situation. However, we could overcome the problem through alternative arrangements,” a senior Petrobangla official said. He also said the present suspension of production at one unit of Ghorashal power plant is not due to low pressure of gas.
PDB officials however said generation is suspended at not only one, but three units of Ghorashal. According to them, due to gas pressure problem they are getting only 530-megawatt from Ghorashal although its capacity is 850-MW. The total suspension of generation at Ghorashal is 320-MW with three units, one having capacity of 210-MW and two each 55-MW lying inoperative.
The total shortage of electricity, according to the PDB officials, is over 500-MW. Apart from Ghorashal, the Baghabari plant of Westmont and Mymensingh plant of Rural Power Company (RPC) are also being affected. The PDB officials said due to the gas problem, they are having only 50-MW from Baghabari of which capacity is 90-MW and 105-MW from Mymensingh although it can generate 140-MW.
If the PDB statement is true, it indicates the present loadshedding, averaging 500-MW each day, is only because of gas problem.
Current average demand of electricity is 3,400-MW plus and PDB's highest generation on March 25 was 2,890-MW. However, the loadshedding in reality is more as the average system loss -- technical loss as well as theft -- stands at 20 percent. So when the generation is 2,890-MW, the actual availability is 2,310-MW. It means, at present the total shortage of electricity is about 1,100-MW, almost equivalent to capital Dhaka's consumption. Besides, there are unscheduled power cuts due to problems in the distribution systems.
Apart from current shortage of 500-MW due to the gas problem as the PDB claimed showing shortage of 320-MW at Ghorashal, 35-MW in Mymensingh and 40-MW in Baghabari totaling 395-MW, its forced outage due to emergency maintenance is 330-MW. Also another 280-MW is missing due to major repair operation. The total suspension of 610-MW generation due to repair works included a 210-MW unit at Raojan, two 55-MW units and one 33-MW at Ashuganj and a 33-MW unit at Haripur. Also there are less production at another 210-MW unit at Raojan and some other plants for the same reason of maintenance operation.
Showing the 610-MW shortage for repair works, Petrobangla officials pointed their fingers at the PDB. The gas sector officials outright rejected the suspension of production at Ghorashal and some other plants due to gas pressure problem. They said it is PDB that should be blamed for the present power crisis. “Even if we believe that generation is affected at Ghorashal due to gas pressure problem, what hell the PDB is doing in other plants? Whenever the PDB faces a crisis, it blames low pressure at Ghorshal. But what's about other plants where gas pressure is always okay? There is no pressure problem in case of Raojan and Ashuganj. Why those units over there are not operated?” questioned a senior Petrobangla official preferring anonymity for obvious reason.

Meghnaghat Debacle

Meanwhile, with the highest 750-MW shortage of generation against the demand, the country faced the worst days and nights for a week in the worsened power scenario following the sudden breakdown of 450-MW private Meghnaghat plant. The capital however did not feel the pinch to that extent as it was given priority in ensuring electricity supply apparently to avert a situation that would definitely enrage the city dwellers. The loadshedding was severe in the countryside. Irrigation in its peak time and industrial activities were also hampered across the country.
The Meghnaghat plant, recently sold by AES Corporation of the USA to British CDC Globeleque, tripped all of a sudden at 5 pm on March 16 pushing the country into serious electricity crisis during the peak hours. With sincere efforts to restore generation, the plant operators assured the PDB of resuming production within four hours. But next morning the operators found out that the repair was beyond their capacity.
Engineers at the PDB said the unit changer tap transformer of Meghnaghat plant was rendered non-functional, disrupting the production of the independent power producer (IPP). According to them, the transformer was of Indian origin and they were not allowed by the IPP authorities to carry out a repair operation that they could have done within three days. On information, the engineers of the Indian supplier came to Bangladesh and restored its operation on March 23. However, it took many more hours for full operation.
However, it was not the first time that the Meghnaghat plant, previously known as AES Meghnaghat, tripped. PDB officials said production from the 450-MW plant remained suspended on at least 20 occasions due to sudden breakdown or for scheduled repair work since the plant went into operation two years back. The country faced a major trouble without production from the largest power plant of the country, which had only 2,655-MW during peak hours on March 16, the lowest during a peak time in recent summers.
Petrobangla officials said they were standby for hours to resume gas supply to the major Meghnaghat plant. Later, they went for alternative supply to Ghorashal power plant to minimize the crisis. The officials said that for optimum supply to Ghorashal, they went for a diversion by decreasing gas supply by 90-100 MMCFD (million cubic feet) from Ashuganj to other places through A-B pipeline. However, PDB officials said the gas supply to Ghorashal and some other units was still less than the requirement.
The Meghnaghat is now back. But the country is still going through severe power crisis. Many wonder what would happen when the highest demand of electricity will be 3,800-4,000-MW in July-September. The PDB expects to bring back the power units now under maintenance operation into generation by that period. Also by June, the government expects that Siddhirganj-210MW could be pressed into operation. Interestingly, the construction of the plant has been going on for last nine years. In the latest development, the contractors had agreed to press it into operation by April this year. “But the Russian contractors apparently would like to get another work order before completion of the Siddhirganj project. That's why they are dilly-dallying and didn't fulfill the verbal commitment of carrying out the assignment by April this year,” said a PDB official.

Load Management

Summer brings a crisis every year, and the authorities initiate various programs to face the crisis, although achievement is not much noteworthy. Load management is often discussed as a remedy to this chronic problem. However, this time it got more importance than in the past, perhaps due to the severest form of the crisis.
As the PDB's planned load management is largely dependent on responsiveness of people, it launched an awareness program to motivate people to go for modern electric appliances and voluntarily rationing of electricity.
Even being the most optimistic, it is certain such a program can do very little in this worst summer, even not in near future. It might heard harsh, but people concerned are right to say formulation of regulations and their proper implementation can only make such a program successful in Bangladesh.