ARTICLE
Looking One Step Beyond
Saleque Sufi

Mr. Mohammad Mohsin is the present Secretary EMRD of Government of Bangladesh. He inherited this position from Mr. Nasiruddin who served two and half years in that position. Energy & Power, the energy magazine of Bangladesh printed interview of all Energy Advisors and Secretaries whenever they assumed responsibility. Mr. Mollah Amzad Hossain, Editor of E&P, recently interviewed the Energy Secretary and printed in the January 15th issue. Mr.Mohsin discussed elaborately on various critical issues of energy sector. In view of the present uncertain energy scenario, the views of the chief accounting officer of the energy sector deserve specific attention and analysis.

The energy scenario of Bangladesh is extremely critical now. In the wake of sky scraping price spiral of oil in the world market and deteriorating domestic supply of basic energy resources Bangladesh economy is in a serious spot of bother. This caretaker government (CTG) inherited a totally indisciplined energy sector with huge demand supply imbalance. The power supply deficit at some stage became 1200-1500MW. Signifiacnt volume of gas became stranded in source for lack of appropriate transmission infrastructure to move to growth centres. Load centers perspired for gas. The most viable fuel option high quality coal even at shallow depth remained unexplored due to indecision perpetuated from misconception. The basic fabric of energy sector was about to be destroyed due to poor vision, lack of proper governance, corruption. In the last one year the caretaker government managed to stem the rot and stooped the downward slide. But lot remains to be done to restore the balance. The text of the interview may focus some light on the future course of action.

Secretary EMRD appears to be a positive and realistic person if we read the introductory remarks carefully. He has echoed the sentiment of silent majority. “Abandoning the resources only in the name of harming the environment and agriculture marginally may not be a wise decision, let us make the best use of our resources while keeping the adverse impacts to the minimum.” Possibly the Secretary said this in reference to the unnecessary hue and cry of some so called patriots (Environmentalists, Economists , BUET teachers) who have misguided the policy makers in taking appropriate decision about exploiting the valuable natural resources to the best interest of Bangladesh. Bangladesh desperately needs to mine its coal and explore gas and oil to provide uninterrupted supply for power generation to fuel its developing economy. 

The present insecure energy situation has also caused food insecurity and stagnancy in economy. In the name of environmental degradation and marginal problems of agriculture an identified group continues to misguide the policy makers and fool the innocent citizens. Billion dollars worth of high quality coal remains unexplored while the country suffers from chronic problem of energy scarcity. How much Bangladesh is loosing everyday from hours of load shedding? How much Bangladesh could gain if we could ensure uninterrupted power supply to all connected consumers? This could be only possible if we could mine our coal in time., set up coal based plants . Why we cannot rehabilitate some affected landowners for energy security of the entire country?

Mr. Moshin felt that the country may start experiencing gas shortages from 2011 unless Bangladesh can have some further significant discovery soon. The author does not agree with this popular feeling. The 3D Seismic survey of major gas fields will dispel our apprehension to some extent about our reserve running out so soon. Titas, Habiganj and Bakhrabad are significantly large field. If we further develop these fields following the state of the sate of the art technology and operate following proper reservoir engineering norms these can be our base load gas fields for many years. When Bibiyana is developed to full potential and proper transmission infrastructure is build to evacuate and move this gas to growth centers this can comfort our gas uncertainties. We will definitely strike more gas in unexplored frontiers in not too distant future if we explore aggressively.

The Secretary has correct vision for BAPEX. This company if given proper support can become a lively exploration company of choice in 5 years. All it needs is fresh graduates of proper vision, appropriate training, and proper working environment. Appropriate professionals with required equipment and resources may explore and discover further gas and oil in our vast unexplored frontiers. BAPEX has already identified few potential structures. It is very encouraging that the caretaker government is planning to provide BAPEX necessary fund to carry out exploration and development. Modern Rigs and modern Seismic equipment will arm BAPEX with necessary weapons. But remember it will need young dynamic work force with visionary leadership. Bangladesh must learn lesson from ONGC of neighboring India. In only a decade or so it has become a leading regional exploration company. As Chairman BAPEX Board Mr. Mohsin has lot to contribute. BAPEX must have resources to carry out at least two exploratory and four development drilling every year. It must have very authentic data processing centre. Bapex must arrange to get its drillers, riggers certified in accredited training institutes so that it can gradually prepare itself to work for IOCs as drilling contractor. No more IOCs should be involved to explore in onshore once BAPEX is fully armed with necessary equipment and manpower. For the time being BAPEX may have strategic partner for specific operations.

It seems that the third round bidding for PSC in deep water will be let out soon. Please make sure that these are properly advertised and major companies respond. Some road shows in Singapore, London and Calgary may be arranged to attract oil majors.

The failure of Cairn in its first attempt at Magnama must not be viewed in the negative perspective. It is very usual in offshore drilling. Cairn may be allowed to undertake 3D seismic study so that it can identify proper well location and go for further drilling. There is no ready success in off shore drilling. We must have required patience.

The coal is our immediate fuel option. The people who run the country must have courage to take the most appropriate decision at appropriate time in the greater interest of the nation. We need coal to be extracted. We need to recover most of it. If that cause temporary dislocation of some people for some times it must not be a big deal. The energy security of 150 million cannot be compromised for relocation of 50,000 over thirty years. If Open Pit /Surface mining is the best method for shallow coal seam why government should bother for paper tigers. The remarks of EMRD Secretary on this issue appear positive.

We have a draft coal policy. Some academics and non-professionals were asked to give opinion. In a democratic society every citizen has right to provide opinion on national issues. But Government of the day must take appropriate decision. Coal policy must have appropriate Royalty limit. For Bangladesh high royalty will discourage good mining companies. The Country risk for investment in Bangladesh now is very high. The 6% royalty for open pit and 7% for underground do not seem inappropriate. Mr. S.K.M Abdullah was very judicious when he recommended this. He was one of the most competent Petrobangla Chairmen. Some people who argue for higher royalty for coal mining are impractical.

Coalbangla in our present situation will only create another unnecessary public sector company. Instead Petrobangla mining directorate should be strengthened. Coal policy must not recommend for any specific mining method. This must be case specific depending on geography, geology, depth of coal, subsurface and surface water management.

Some people talk about coal bed methane. Some tell about coal to gas or coal to liquid. These are not east y technology. One of our colleague here worked for Sasol in South Africa for many years .He says that our coal sector must be matured enough to embrace such technology. However, will discuss coal mining in a separate write up.

The EMRD Secretary must act positively to ensure that our own production companies get proper price for their gas and end-users price is gradually adjusted. BERC must be given authority to establish the most appropriate mechanism for gas and energy pricing.

Chittagong is suffering from gas crisis, energy crisis. The immediate requirement is to expeditiously construct a loop line from Brahmanbaria to Faujdarhat. It can be done in two phases. Simultaneously compressor at Feni can also be set up.

EMRD Secretary should also set up a high level steering committee to monitor the progress of critical gas transmission infrastructures like 

· Compressors at Muchai, Ashuganj, Elenga.
· Bakhrabad –Siddhirganj Pipeline.
· Muchai-Dhanua –Jamuna East bank Pipeline.
· Hatikumrul-Ishwardi - Bheramara Pipeline.
· Bheramara –Khulna Pipeline.

Mr. Mohsin has taken up EMRD sector at a critical juncture. He must not fail in his assignment. Be very focused and positive. Take some specific actions. 

Secretaries came and went in the last 15 years. Only Dr. Tawfique Elahi Chowdhury took several innovative initiatives. But he also took some controversial actions. Anyway due to his initiatives we have operating barge mounted plants, IPPs. Just close your eyes and think we Meghnaghat & Horipoor plants were not there, if Barge Mounted Plants at Siddhirganj, Baghabari and Khulna were not there what would have happened to our energy security. Possibly his handling of Magurchara and Niko were not correct.But he was a doer and had lot of courage. Energy Sector now needs courage, commitment and determination of key persons. Good luck to EMRD Secy.