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Bibiyana Must Not Be A Golden Duck
Saleque Sufi

At long last there has been light at the end of the tunnel. The largest gas field discovered after emergence of Bangladesh is expected to come on stream soon. There may still be some debate whether it is the largest but it is beyond doubt that it is a world-class discovery, which can serve the long-term energy security of the nation. After the sad blowout of Magurchhara in mid nineties people became extremely sceptic about the credibility of Occidental of Bangladesh Ltd. Unocal took over the leading role from its partner, overhauled the management and within very short period discovered the large gas field in Nabiganj.

The author has some sweet memories of Bibiyana in its early days. There had been serious resistance of local people for development of this field initially. Unocal submitted a development plan that included a proposal for letting them export the gas to India as they felt Bangladesh domestic market was to small to absorb the gas that Bibiyana will produce in its effort for a sizeable commercial development.

Local people apart from squeezing maximum benefits for the affected properties were pressing hard for setting up power plant, fertilizer factories in the region. The author was assisting Unocal in its Jalalabad gas field development at this stage. We used to fly in a mini helicopter twice a week from Dhaka to Sylhet. On way up and down we used to drop at Bibiyana. In my capacity I tried to assist Unocal land liaison to resolve land problems. I also had opportunity to observe drilling of the second gas well.

Regarding utilization of Bibiyana gas I had my own vision. Always thought Bangladesh gas market would expand significantly making way for access of Bibiyana gas. But the size of Bibiyana reserve was the point to ponder. If the recoverable reserve may be seen to be somewhere in the region 6 TCF, a portion of the gas could be dedicated for export at international price. But the export issue should only be decided and managed by Bangladesh Government if in the meantime other discoveries create significant assured reserve for Bangladesh. However, situation of 2002 and 2006 are so much different. Bangladesh now has a huge potential gas market. The power and industry sector in the next 3-5 years can absorb 450-500mmcfd. Given the expected political stability there may be boom of industrial development, which may trigger additional gas demand. So even if Bibiyana is developed to its full potential still the gas may find market access within Bangladesh.

Bibiyana is the first gas field in Bangladesh, which had 3D survey carried out in its command area, the reserve was also assessed by well known international assessors. The field development has been carried out by Chevron in a very organised and disciplined manner. The most intriguing phase of the initiative may be the effective evacuation of gas to national gas grid. Currently it is scheduled to deliver at the rate of 200mmcfd to the national grid at Muchai Midline Scraper Manifold of N-S pipeline near Rashidpur gas field. The downstream segment of N-S pipeline and R-A loopline are operating at near capacities. There are hardly any spaces left to accommodate the additional supply. It may be required to adjust gas delivery from Jalalabad and Habiganj gas field to make way for Bibiyana gas until the pipeline compressor stations at Muchai and Ashuganj are installed and put into operation.

But in any case the commencement of gas supply from Bibiyana will ensure security of supply in the national gas grid and create opportunity for supplying gas to all power plants at this critical stage of national energy security. It will create reserve margin to fall back as and when one or two gas fields need emergency maintenance.

Bibiyana will eventually have a production capacity of 800/600mmcfd soon. After reassessing the ultimate recoverable reserve the optimum commercial development plan can be revisited. But one must not lose the focus. Once in production Bibiyana may become the backbone of gas national gas source like Titas Gas Field. It must not be looked upon as a golden duck. We must never allow over production. Possibly gas sector had good lesson from Bakhrabad and Sangu gas fields. Depending on long term availability of gas from Bibiyana Bangladesh may commit long term gas supply to probable Tata plants and other future large gas based plants and industries. Excessive withdrawal may jeopardise gas reservoir in the manner it happened in earlier cases at Bakhrabad and Sangu.

If Bibiyana is in a position to deliver 600mmcfd in 2008 Petrobangla may need to curtail production from the fields of SGFL, Bapex and BGFCL to evacuate the take or pay volume from Bibiyana, Jalalabad and Moulvibazar of Chevron. However, the standby capacity for a while will create opportunity to undertake some reservoir study options of some gas fields. But the real challenge would lie in the expedited implementation of GTCL’s compressor projects.

Several other options may come under review. Micro NGL plants have now become economic. Private investors may set up Micro LNG plants anywhere between Bibiyana and Muchai to utilize a part of gas available upstream of Muchai from northern gas fields which in all probability may become stranded till compressor stations are in place. The LNG can be moved in cryogenic trucks to gas load centres, which either have gas transmission bottlenecks or where the gas network is not extended. A sizeable capacity gas-fired power plant can be set up at Shahjibazar to utilize more of Habiganj gas field production. We may trade electricity with neighboring Tripura if we generate surplus power in distant future.

Anyway it is great news that Bibiyana, a world class gas field is coming on stream. Congratulations to Andrew and his team for the achievement. One of my last involvements in Bangladesh gas sector was evacuation of Moulvibazar gas to national grid. I remember the mini hiccup of the Moulvibazar gas plant during commissioning. But that kind of teething problem can always be there. Let the gas supply from Bibiyana bring relief and comfort to the starving energy sector. Let the lights remove the devils darkness. I repeat, let's not consider the prolific Bibiyana as a golden duck.

We must not become complacent. We need additional supply in Chittagong. The best option is to step up exploration in the region. Cairn must not delay in the exploration of Magnama and Hatiya; deep water exploration plans must move forward; all the planned projects of GTCL must move smoothly to expand and supplement transmission grid. Side by side, it is proper time to discuss and carry forward the probabilities of regional gas grid involving Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. We must think about the energy scenario beyond 2020 and must have vision for that and values & mission to achieve.