Energy & Power

ANALYSIS

Roadmap for Energy Security

Saleque Sufi

The caretaker government has already taken several pragmatic initiatives to salvage dignity and honor of Bangladesh. The drive against anarchy, corruption and mischief mongers have earned the confidence of silent majority. The country is back on the track and the nation looks forward for a better future. It is the time to bring back order and discipline at every sphere of life. Bangladesh must demonstrate that the embarrassing status of the most corrupt country was merely due to corruption and misuse of power and position of a handful of rotten politicians, corrupt bureaucrats and ill motivated business syndicate. Once the world community is convinced that Bangladesh is not the safe heaven of corrupt people and terrorists FDI will start flowing in and various sectors including energy sector will become active and vibrant to overcome the recent standstill and dwindling situation. It is time to take major initiative so that people can feel the impacts of positive changes and future political government do not dare to overturn the pro people initiatives for petty interests.

We believe the caretaker government has already felt the depth and diversity of the energy crisis and has correct anatomy of the disaster. Massive power shortage due to generation crisis mismanagement of distribution and supply, under performing gas sector, in disciplined petroleum business must be overhauled. But there should not be any panic. Honesty and commitment in energy sector management can still salvage the energy sector and bring it back to track.

Creation of Level Playground for Private – Public Sector

Energy sector needs massive investment to meet the growing demand. This may come from foreign investors and local source. Government can not and should not bother to carry the burden of sick and weak public sector companies. Caretaker government must make the (Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission) BERC truly independent and effective. BERC must be allowed to independently regulate entire energy business. The policies must be transparent. No backdoor parleys should be allowed to bring weak and unknown companies to generate power while power giants will jump here if the process is transparent and appropriate environment of getting the return on investment is offered without bakshish.

Bangladesh needs about 1000 MW new generation every year to overcome the deficit and meet the growth of demand for the next 5 years. There is no time to keep the keep the fingers crossed. Some of the dubious deals concluded during the last days of the failed government of BNP alliance will never bring any benefit. Meghnaghat - 2 will die natural death if it is not scrapped and proper fresh initiative is taken. There should not be any further discussion with Codogan Manning at all. Caretaker government may probe into the serious allegations of manipulating the tender process of Chandpur and Sirajganj plants. Fresh tenders for new plants must be let out soon and if possible the awards must be made during tenure of the caretaker government. BERC must be allowed to play its role to facilitate the investment process through licensing for energy business and determination of tariff. Electricity is the major cornerstone of national development.

Major Plunderers Must be Punished

Main culprits behind the dismal state of power sector must get due punishment for fouling up the sector. People who traded with power poles at the cost of national interest must also be brought under law. Activities of some other power traders who created smokes in Shambhuganj and Barapukuria must also be taken cared of. Power sector was one of the main areas where Hawa Bhaban had happy hunting ground. If only people responsible for miserable failures of power sector are thoroughly investigated and the culprits are punished, people in future will never dare to indulge in wrongdoings. Government must investigate Shanir Akhra, Kansat and Phulbari incidents and punish the persons responsible.

Energy Mix

It is proper time to take proper initiative for appropriate fuel mix for power generation. Gas accounts for almost 90 percent of required fuel. Our reserve is not infinite and it has better utilization options. Moreover the gas grid and power grid do not compliment each other. Major power centers like Ghorashal, Ashaganj, Meghnaghat, Raujan have gas supply constraints. We have substantial reserve of high quality coal. For unnecessary myths and ill motivated propaganda triggered by the beneficiaries of coal business syndicates the most economic option of coal exploration was not given go ahead. Underground mining in a country like Bangladesh can never become economic. Barapukuria is a living example. People have earned their fortune in Barapukuria but end of the day Bangladesh has to import coal to keep the loan power plant running. Open pit mining is the only economic option to harness and exploit our coal. It will displace some population but if we can set up some base load power plants on coal the national energy security will offset the cost of replacement and relocation of affected mass. The other problem of water draw down is unfounded.

The writer has interacted with reputed miners in Australia and finds no reason as to why Bangladesh should be concerned at all about this matter. Coal firing may trigger greenhouse gas emission but these days clean coal technology is the appropriate answer. Whatever we do caretaker government may look into coal policy very seriously and if possible give it go-ahead after careful scanning. We need substantial volume of coal for own need. We may export if we have surplus. But Bangladesh must control export and earn maximum benefit from it.

Government must probe Phulbari incident which has tarnished the image of the country to investors. In the next five years at least 100 MW power generations should be coal based. Coal should be utilized in other areas and import of substandard coal from neighboring country must be stopped. We may have at least 15-20 percent coal based power generation from 2012. After this period no new power plant should be built on gas unless we manage to discover substantial new gas reserve in the mean time.

Government may initiate appropriate actions to generate electricity from municipal waste. Mini and micro hydro may also be explored. Kaptai plant needs BMRE. New unit of Kaptai can be source of Energy security in Chittagong. Solar power can solve at least 2-5 percent of our rural power needs. We suggest the following fuel mix for power generation from 2012. For power generation energy mix are gas 60 percent, coal 25 percent, hydro 10 percent and other renewable 5 percent.

We cannot have the luxury to continue using imported liquid petroleum for power generation. With the extension of gas transmission line to Khulna region power plants at Bheramara, Khulna can have gas fired units but once coal exploration starts in full swing power plants in this region should also be coal fired. Shabajpur gas field can be source of a medium capacity plant at Bhola.

Energy Pricing

The price of Energy can not be heavily subsidized. BPC can not survive if the prices of Petroleum products are not market oriented. Government may subsidize kerosene and diesel for irrigation but for the luxury cars the suckers must pay the real price of fuel. Similarly electricity price should be gradually adjusted. Energy must be kept above politics. ERC must be involved in price setting mechanism. If India and Pakistan can adopt market oriented pricing mechanism why we should not do that.

CNG & LPG

Expansion of CNG network was one of the rare successes of previous government but some people like also fished in muddy water in this initiative. Occupied two vintage spots near Dhaka International Airport for CNG business .Son of another top notch occupied another key area along airport road for CNG station. Genuine business men were deprived and CNG business was a major source of toll collection of some ministers of the previous government. 4 stroke CNG taxies and baby-taxies scandals should also be probed. All government vehicles in Dhaka, Comilla, Sylhet and Chittagong must be converted to CNG within 3 months. People should be encouraged to set up CNG fueling stations along Dhaka- Chittagong, Dhaka-Sylhet, Dhaka-Mymensigh and Dhaka-Bogra highways so that long distance buses and intercity trucks can also be converted to CNG.

Government may restrict import of all other vehicles and encourage NGVs. This will save substantial forex for fuel import and ensure proper utilization of gas. At the same time better environmental protection will be facilitated. The CNG stations along highways should have conversion and maintenance facilities. The long outstanding LPG recovery from wet gas stream of KTL and Beanibazar must be primed during this period. Pipeline gas to remote areas for mere political reasons must come to a dead stop. LPG marketing and distribution must come under close monitoring. Even in Dhaka city pipeline supply of gas to posh high rise apartments should be converted to LPG. This will relieve the under stressed gas distribution network to some extent. LPG can also be an alternate fuel for automobiles. The safety of CNG and LPG vehicles must be guaranteed through strict monitoring and regulation of vehicle conversion.

Load Management

Government has already initiated some steps for load management. Even in major countries like America and West Europe shops and markets other than food, medicines pull down their shutters in the evening. For Bangladesh other than week ends all markets and malls must close business from 6PM. The office timing should also be adjusted. Government offices may continue from 0730 AM to O330PM. This will enable people to get some shopping time on way back from office. The evening peak can be catered if we rationally use our capacity. All defaulters and illegal connections must be snapped. All kinds of illuminations must be stopped. Sorry no games under flood light this summer in Bangladesh. Our problem is peak shaving. If enough rationing can be made to cater peak we may manage average load. In adjacent areas of captive generation surplus power can be marketed during evening peak.

Gas for Power, CNG & Industries

It is not understood why power plants at Ghorashal continue to starve for gas. Ashuganj-Monohardi pipeline must have facilitated movement of stranded gas. Similarly Dhanua-Savar pipeline n must have eased gas supply constraints to Tongi plant. But if the problem persists, gas supply to Poalash fertilizer and Ghorashal may be reduced after the current peak fertilizer season till Bibiyana comes on stream. Commissioning of compressor at Bakhrabad gas field will allow transmission of additional gas to Chittagong area. Raujan plants must be preferred after KAFCO if rationing in Chittagong is at all required. Massive hunt for illegal and defaulting gas consumers will also save substantial gas which can be diverted for power generation, CNG and industries.

Exploration for Gas & Oil

The IOCs must go all out to undertake exploration in their assigned blocks. Government may finalize bid document for offshore exploration and if time permits let out the tender. It needs to be checked whether our maritime boundary has been settled. If not urgent initiatives can be taken to resolve the matter .Cairn should explore Hatiya and Magnama. Chevron should explore in block 7. Bapex may do it themselves or engage contractor to explore in block 8 and 11. Our energy demand is growing is growing in geometric progression. Stable situation will encourage industrial giants to move resources in Bangladesh. It can be an industrial hub given the huge hungry markets all around. Enough gas on surface will comfort energy generation; secured energy supply will create massive industrialization, create job opportunities, reduce tensions and improve law and order.

The nation has pinned down great hopes on the present caretakers. It’s not only ensuring free and fair election but also bringing back order and discipline at all spheres of life which our political culture miserably failed to deliver due to insatiable thirst for power and money which are desired. If the people are given choice they will overwhelmingly go for this non political government. But this may change if it does not deliver soon. The ensuing summer is an acid test... So please take drastic actions to comfort the suffering masses. People will support all pragmatic initiatives. Our helpless nation got opportunities in 1971, again in 1990. We could not carry forward our glorious achievement. Again possibly one last chance we have got. Let us grab it with both hands and uphold the glorious image of the nation which was the ideals of our Liberation War.