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Bangladesh is currently struggling with its energy balance and security of supply. The caretaker government has already planned for taking several actions which may alleviate the situation if these can be implemented with committed dynamic management and professional excellence. However, the long term energy security will remain a big concern as the available primary source of energy is finite and nonrenewable. It will take investment of billions of dollars to effectively exploit and harness those resources.
In this wide open world no country can keep all its windows shut and survive in isolation. Countries of different regions of the world are cooperating and sharing their resources in win-win deals. There are no reasons why Bangladesh cannot do that if all such deals are based on sovereign equality. To meet the growing demand of huge population for longer time into the future we must explore all avenues of regional energy cooperation with our next door neighbors.
India, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Thailand and Bangladesh can have multilateral energy cooperation in win-win deals of all parties. There can be bilateral cooperation on case to case basis but the main focus must be multilateral cooperation.
India has huge hungry energy market. It does not have enough of its own domestic reserve or resource potential to meet its emerging demand. So India is desperately searching secured source of supply from all over the world. But India has the technology and highly skilled mid level management to exploit and manage its resources. It has advanced a great deal in importing natural gas from Iran through pipeline. It has come to an understanding with China not to compete for securing energy assets abroad and rather make joint efforts for these.
India has invested in hydro projects in Bhutan and Nepal and has long term contract for purchase of power for its grid. It has embarked on extensive exploration campaign for harnessing gas and oil. It has already met with significant successes. So as far as long term energy security is concerned India is proceeding with lot of good homework, aggressive vision and a mission.
Two land locked Himalayan countries Nepal & Bhutan have huge hydroelectricity potential part of which will meet Indias huge demand. But due to mountainous terrains both these country may not be in a position to supply energy to its own people in the most cost effective manner. Their hydroelectricity can be a long term supply source for all the neighboring countries including India and Bangladesh.
Myanmar has significant onshore and offshore reserve of natural gas. It is already contributing to regional energy security .Pipeline gas is exported to Thailand. Talks are underway to export pipeline gas to China. Talks on Myanmar-Bangladesh-India tri-nation pipeline could not progress due stubborn attitude of India and Bangladesh. If exploited properly Myanmar gas resource can be potential source of supply for the region for a long time.
Thailand has numerous offshore wells of gas. It is importing gas from Malaysia and Myanmar. The economy of Thailand frog leaped following secured energy supply through regional cooperation.
Bangladesh has substantial proven and probable natural gas reserve to support its growing demand for a while. It has significant reserve of high quality coal. But it requires billions of dollars to set up required energy infrastructures and exploit gas and coal. It does have and oil and petroleum products excepting the gas condensate. 100% crude oil and petroleum products are imported from abroad and it drains out significant foreign exchange. It miserably failed to develop its power sector over the last five years and now suffering from acute power shortage.
There has been lots of discussions, seminars and conferences to work out some short of regional energy trading, set up power grid and gas grid. But there has been very little progress primary due to lack of vision and political commitment. Disbelief and lack of mutual trust did not help the cause.
Regional energy cooperation can immensely benefit all the nations of South Asia. Just think how much the trade and commerce are losing every day in Bangladesh due to power load shedding. On the other hand some of the Indian states around Bangladesh have surplus generation capacity sufficient to cater our peak demand. If we could trade energy with India the crisis could be managed to a great extent.
Due to large differential of price of petroleum products a significant quantity of POL products are smuggled across to neighboring country through our porous borders. We import significant volume of inferior quality coal from India but we have kept our huge reserve of high quality coal unexplored for ages. If we could have worked out meaningful energy cooperation with India, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar we could share the resources and overcome the energy crisis. Pricing of petroleum products could be set up in such a way that the price differential across the border could be reduced. Unless this is done it is impossible to stop smuggling. Energy cooperation could facilitate setting up of power grid and gas grid for free flow of energy across the region.
During long association with Bangladesh energy sector the author had opportunity to attend a number of USAID sponsored seminars and workshop for regional cooperation for energy in SAARC countries. In fact the author was made Bangladesh representative in a group of energy professionals of SAARC countries. We talked about several issues and options in a Delhi seminar. The author also played some role in formulating the draft MOU for the tri-nation gas pipeline involving Myanmar, Bangladesh and India.
Moreover, during a private visit to India after involuntary dissociation from the job discussed with Mittal group about the possibility of power import from Tripura when they set up large power plant utilizing the stranded gas of Rukhia and other gas fields. The surplus electricity of any of the neighboring Indian state can meet the immediate need of Bangladesh. In future Bangladesh may also change into a position of power export to deficit states of India who knows. We may set up large enough gas power plants in Shahjibazar to trade power with neighboring Indian state where they have deficit. Even we may think of power trading from future coal plants that we may set up in Dinajpur or Rangpur region.
While preparing this write up it has been surfaced that the caretaker government is contemplating power import from India. It is a well conceived initiative if it can be achieved without any unwarranted strings. We may include this in a package of energy trading. We do not need to worry about the nature and type of deals as several models are in existence. We may check how Singapore is importing power from Malaysia, how energy is traded among Netherlands, Germany, Belgium. How gas and electricity are traded among USA, Canada and Mexico.
Bangladesh for the next 3-5 years will require about 500MW power to maintain system balance and ensure security of supply. In the meantime it can generate its own additional power to offset deficit and even elevate to a position to export during off peak hours. So why not we vigorously explore possibility of power trading among Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Bhutan. But the main problem here is not technical or commercial. The problem lies in political disbelief and lack of mutual trust and political commitment.
During our USAID-sponsored North America visit, we learnt how FERC and NEB are regulating the interstate energy trading. We organized a two-day seminar for the members of parliament where we explained various aspects of energy trading. But things did not progress much. Anyway, the USAID did a lot of work and may be in a position to present several options which the caretaker government can act upon. ADB may support this initiative. If the initiative is given go-ahead, not only Bangladesh, but all the regional countries will make progress towards a secured energy future. But time is the essence and decision needs to be taken at the earliest. The main role here will be the positive and open-minded attitude of India. Energy cooperation has to be a multilateral issue. Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh and India have to be integrated. However, power trading between India and Bangladesh can be the icing of the cake. |