ARTICLE
Bali Roadmap & Beyond
Khondkar Abdus Saleque

The civilized world now recognizes global warming and consequent climatic change as the most difficult challenge for the world. It is not religious fanaticism or organized terrorism, it is the emission of undesirable green house gases (GHG) which is the number one enemy of the human beings. If so-called champions of free world spend billions on their perceived “War on Terror” then why they are so reluctant to lead the world in the fight against climatic change? Cyclone, hurricanes, flooding, bushfires, tidal surges are destroying properties, killing millions in different countries of the world. These are not simply natural disasters. Most of these are caused by human actions. The leading industrial giants like USA, Canada, Japan, Australia as well as developing countries like China, Brazil and India are major polluters. Poor nations are the worst sufferers. Large parts of countries like Bangladesh may cease to exist if the GHG emissions are not drastically reduced in a planned manner without further delay. 

Global warming is forecast to set in with a vengeance after 2009 with at least half of the five following years expected to be hotter than 1998, the warmest year on record as per the report of the scientists. Climate experts have long predicted a general warming trend over the 21st century. But the new study is more specific about what is likely to happen in the decade that started from 2005.

UK Met Office has made a computer model that takes into account such natural phenomena as the El Nino pattern in the Pacific Ocean and other fluctuations in the ocean circulation and heat content. A forecast for the next decade is particularly useful, because climate could be dominated over the period by these natural changes rather than human –caused global warming. Some scientists say that natural forces may offset the warming caused by human activities, such as burning fossil fuel.

Scientists may be divided in their opinion and predictions. But the hard reality is that the climate is drastically changing. Glaciers in the poles are meeting, the sea surface is rising, many low-lying coastal belts of several countries are in danger of being swept way. Tsunami, hurricanes, draughts, massive flooding have played havoc with lives and properties. People of the poor countries are worst suffers. Civilized world remained mostly unconcerned for several years. Against this backdrop, the UN Climate Change Conference held in Bali adopted a roadmap to guide negotiations over enhanced global actions on climate change after 2012. The plan is to negotiate a new global warming pact by 2009.

Two weeks of marathon discussions led to breaking of deadlock and signing of an agreement on both the agenda for the negotiations and a 2009 deadline for completing them so that so that a successor pact to the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gas emissions can enter into effect in 2013. The conference, hosted by the Government of Indonesia, took place at the Bali International Convention Center and brought together more than 10,000 participants, including representatives of over 180 countries together with observers from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations and the media. The two weeks included the sessions of the conference of the parties of the UNFCCC, the subsidiary bodies as well as the meeting of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol. A ministerial segment in the second week concluded the conference. The conference culminated in the adoption of the Bali Roadmap, which charts out the course of a new negotiating process to be concluded by 2009 that will ultimately lead to a post 2012 international agreement on climate change. Groundbreaking decisions were taken which form core elements of the roadmap. They include the launch of the Adaptation Fund as well as decision on technology transfer and on reducing emissions from deforestration. 

The decisions represent various tracks that are essential to achieving a secure climate future. The text does not specify or mandate emission targets, but it does say deep cuts in emissions will be needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Meeting until early afternoon on the penultimate day had failed to break a deadlock on the content of the Bali Roadmap – a statement from the UN conference setting out the priorities for negotiations on a new post-Kyoto climate change pact. USA remained adamant not to wear the EU’s insistence that the statement to refer to the need for greenhouse gas cuts of 25-40% by 2020, even if the targets were non-biding and merely guidance for further talks. The US however had some support among the 189 countries represented in Bali, with Russia, Japan and China similarly opposed to the wording. With the talks going nowhere, the conference hosts, the UN Framework Convention on climate Change, tried to melt the ice by calling a special meeting of the disputing nations. 

Co-chaired by Australia’s Climate Change Minister Penny Wong, this was the diplomatic equivalent of locking them in a room and not letting them out until they had resolved their differences. Later in the afternoon German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel briefed journalists, talking in glowing terms the US, saying the Americans had become more accommodating and were making real efforts to broker a deal. Even EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas appeared optimistic.

But another problem cropped up. Pakistan ambassador Munir Akram, representing the group of 77 developing countries, the G-77, warned that “deep differences” still remains between developed and developing countries. Poor countries were opposed to a new deal, preferring to manage climate change under the existing rules of the Kyoto Protocol, which mandated emission mitigation obligations on only rich countries.

The stalemate continued and delegates resumed discussion after grabbing only couple of hours of sleep. Senator Wong appeared a bit distressed -- “We were cautiously optimistic about the progress being made, but we could not continue making progress”.

Further talks started melting ice. The reference to the 2020 targets had been removed and the main disagreement focused on the two paragraphs that outlined the specific obligations of developed and developing countries. India sought to amend the road map document to strengthen requirements for richer nations to help poorer with technology to limit emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Debate was brought back into the public plenary meeting of the convention. But by this stage delegates were exhausted and tempers soon frayed.

Indonesian Environment Minister Rachmat Witoelar reconvened the plenary meeting, even though key members of the G77 were still outside trying to thrash out a compromise after lengthy delays waiting for closed–door negotiations to conclude. Chinese delegation then launched an angry attack on UNFCCC chief Yvo de Boer, accusing the organizers of deliberately convening a decision-making plenary session while closed-door talks were going on with developing nations. Yvo de Boer felt offended and left the scene.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon returned to address the Convention. Joined by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, he implored delegates to compromise. 

Ban Ki-moon said, “I come before you very reluctantly. Frankly, I am disappointed by the lack of progress”. He urged, “Seize the moment, this moment, for the good of all humanity. I appeal to you to make the necessary agreement now, to not risk all that you achieved so far. The scientific realities affecting our planet demand a high level of ambition.” Indonesian President Dr. Yudhoyono also urged delegates to live up to the world’s expectations.” The world is watching. I beg you to not let them down.”

The EU announced its intention to withdraw its opposition to the new form of words proposed by India. This announced brought back most countries on board and an agreement appeared a possibility.

But US head of Delegation still remained undaunted. Paula Dobriansky spoke, “We are not prepared to accept this formulation.” Her statement attracted loud long boos in the hall. South Africa’s delegate called Ms Dobriansky’s intervention “most unwelcome and without any basis.” Uganda’s delegate stated, “ We would like to beg them to relent.”

But the most telling blow was dealt by the Papua New Guinea’s Kevin Conrad. “We seek your leadership, but if for some reason you are not willing to lead, leave it to the rest of us. Please get out of the way.” This very courageous statement got instant support of almost all. The US’s isolation was complete. No one spoke in support. Ms Dobbriansky capitulated, withdrawing the US objection. “We have listened very closely to many of our colleagues here during these two weeks, but especially to what has been said in this hall, we will go forward and join consensus.”

So the path to achieving some sort of consensus agreement in the Bali Climate Conference was not easy. The European Commission which played a major role in catalyzing the consensus in a statement hailed the outcome of the conference. It stated that the conference at least finally agreed to set a deadline of the end 2009 to complete negotiations to allow governments to ratify and implement the future climate change agreement by the end of 2012. The commission said the conference also made important decisions on several other issues, including launching demonstration projects to reduce deforestation, finalizing arrangements for a fund to help developing countries adapt to impacts of climate change, and scaling up financing for transfer of technology to developing countries. The roadmap includes the key building blocks of a future agreement, including measures for limiting emissions, adapting to climate change, technology development and transfer, scaling up investment to support adaptation. The commission also stated that four negotiating sessions are scheduled in 2008, starting in March or April.

The new treaty to tackle climate change has been welcomed by Australian Scientists as a “step in the right direction”. According to them the 13 day United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change delivered a deal that sets the framework for a long term agreement on emissions cuts to succeed the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012. 

Professor Matthew England, Co-Director of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales said the outcome of Bali conference shows science has triumphed. He said, “The 25-40% target emissions reduction by 2020 is in line with scientific projections of cuts needed, as a minimum, to give us a decent chance of avoiding dangerous anthropogenic climate change. This aligns with the 2007 Bali Climatic Declaration by Scientists, in which more than 200 of the world’s top climate scientists signed off on a minimum target for emissions reductions. He sounded optimistic -- “We now need to set these reductions in a meaningful binding protocol.”

Some people think the costs of tackling climate change may be too much. The immediate Australian Prime Minister John Howard thought committing to a binding reduction target could cause Australian economy to suffer a severe blow. That is why Australia did not agree to sign Kyoto protocol so long. USA is also staying away from it on this concept. But Australian experts commenting on the latest UN climate change report say the financial cost of tackling global warming is a small price to pay. The IPPCC says keeping the temperature rise within 2 degrees Celsius by 2030 would cost 0.12% of annual GDP gobally. Dr Graeme Pearman, director of Monash Sustainability Institute at Monash University, says “the effect on global GDP may be overestimated. If you take into account the health benefits of reduced pollution and the avoidance of climate impacts such as extreme weather and coastal damage, the effect on GDP is even lower. The cost of letting climate change happen is a lot more than the cost of mitigation. Pearman said the latest IPCC report, the third in a series, underpins similar findings from Australian and international research, including the Stern report. “They all come to the same conclusion that it is not that expensive to mitigate climate change especially if we start early and we share the future amongst different energy sources.” The report includes nuclear, solar and wind power. Other recommended greenhouse gas reduction strategies include more energy efficient buildings and lighting, as well as capturing carbon dioxide from coal –fired power stations, and oil and gas rigs.

Frank Muller, professorial visiting fellow at the University of New South Wales ‘Institute of Environmental Studies, says reducing greenhouse gas emissions has many benefits.” Cutting emissions not only protects us from dangerous climate change, but also provides other important benefits that typically are not counted in economic studies. These include better public health, greater energy security and benefits of innovation. Another key message is that improving energy efficiency, especially in buildings, provides an enormous opportunity globally for cutting emissions at low cost, an in some cases actually saves money.”

Only US environmental officials reject some options detailed in the report for cutting emissions too costly. James Connaughton, head of the White House Council on Environmental Quality says, “There are measures that come currently at an extremely high costs because of lack of available technology.” According to him these scenarios would bring cuts in world GDP up to 3%. That would cause global recession that is what US want to avoid.

The world is divided into developed and developing economy. Some Industrially developed countries like USA, Canada, Australia and Japan are large emitters of GHG. Some developing countries like China, India and Brazil are also major polluters. But the perspectives are different in different cases. Developed world has appropriate technologies and resources to combat the emissions. The developed nations are not to be worried about their energy security. They have plenty of basic energy resources of their own or their supply lines are well established. On the other hand to fuel the emerging economy the developing nations are desperately searching energy supply source. They do not have advanced technology. Developed nations must lead the way. The must support the developing and underdeveloped economy with technology and resources. The fight against climate change must be fought unitedly for the benefit of all. 

Underdeveloped countries of Africa and Asia are the worst victims of climate change. They need support and assistance for adopting environment friendly fuel options. Developed nations must contribute massively in the fund to provide support for the poor countries to tackle the impacts of climate changes. The way forward is for rich countries, including Australia to help finance the low –carbon transformation in poorer countries.
John Conor, chief executive of The Climate Institute in Australia commenting on Bali Roadmap said, “It is a rough and risky roadmap but importantly with late contributions from the Auatralian government, we have some signposts for the safety of the planet and future of our kids.”

Bangladesh had a significant presence in Bali and hopefully learned some lessons from the conference. We need massive forestation. The country must have at least 20% forest. Our world heritage Sundarbans recently saved us from more destruction by Sidr. Major cities must build up green belts. Coastal areas, highways and railway tracks must have planned growth of green plants. Our automobiles must more aggressively switch over to CNG exploiting our gas reserve. We may soon start burning coal for power generation. We must start thinking about clean coal technology straightaway. Australia may assist us here. Solar, wind, bio-energy must play more important role in our energy basket. People talk about energy security. But we must be very serious about access to modern technology. Bangladesh is on the danger line of adverse impact of GHG emissions. We must not forget that. We must spend time and money on Research & Development of green Energy Technologies. We hope that the Bali Conference will lead the nations of the world to agree on meaningful emission reduction targets by 2009.