Bangladesh has a Twenty-Twenty vision for supplying power to its entire population. The vision was adopted in 2000. Seven years have elapsed since then. In end 2007 the official figure will show Bangladesh has achieved power supply to about 35 percent. But if you seriously audit it may not be more than 30 percent who have access to quality electricity. Mere extending power distribution network and connecting consumers mean nothing unless uninterrupted power at stable voltage can be ensured. Four to six hours load-shedding of connected consumers does not mean we have achieved any mentionable target as yet.

If we seriously analyze the system we have to audit our generation, transmission and distribution system or in fact all segments of power sector. Assured fuel supply, choice of fuel and their availability will form a significant part of the discussion. This very important issue of national life was recently discussed in a roundtable conference held in Dhaka moderated by the Editor of a leading English daily. For the sake of discussion some reference can be drawn from the discussion of the seminar.

Our present effective power generation capacity is about 4000MW per day against a suppressed demand of 5200MW. Our dilapidated power transmission and distribution system cannot handle more. There is about 1200MW captive power generation capacity much of which remain unutilized. Many of the generation units at Ashuganj, Ghorashal, Siddhirganj, and Shikalbaha have long outlived their effective economic life. In many countries of the world these plants would have been retired long time back and replaced with modern fuel efficient plants. But it did not happen for us. We spent millions in necessary or sometimes unnecessary repair, maintenance and overhauling. These have now become essential nuisance. If these run for few weeks these remain inoperative rest of the time. So these are mostly unreliable. So it is not wise to count these when making plan for future. Power sector master plan identified several power plants for priority implementation. But most of these did not take off for many reasons. It will not be out of place to discuss these reasons here.

It is not still clearly understood why power division and energy division were separated in MOEMR sometime during Awami League government rule from 1996-2001. The coordination between the two divisions fell apart since then. This among others is one of the main reasons for the current crisis. Natural gas still accounts for more than 90 percent of our power generation and about 40 percent of our gas is utilized for power. But lack of coordination between power and energy divisions have resulted in situation when power load centers do not have required gas transmission facilities and future potential power plants locations require substantial gas transmission infrastructure. Moreover, very ineffective and non-professional gas sector management failed to address the critical issues of gas sector development in time to comfort the situation. Consequently, substantial volume of gas remains stranded in the Sylhet region while power plants in Chittagong and Ghorashal areas are struggling for gas supply.

The constraints of power supply to Ghorashal are known to all. Luckily the Ghorashal fertilizer factory is shut down now. This has allowed Ghorashal plant to get more gas from the grid. But the situation will again become critical when this factory comes back into operation. To comfort Ghorashal power hub a dedicated 20-inch OD pipeline may be built from Monohardi as soon as possible.

The situation of Chittagong will continue to remain critical till additional gas supply to Chitagong is ensured. The BGSL transmission system was developed in early eighties with a definite vision. The 24-inch OD Bakhrabad-Chittagong transmission pipeline at that time attracted lot of criticism from so-called energy experts. This pipeline at MAOP of 960 PSIG was designed to transport 350 MMCFD in 25 years ago. Since then Chittagong market has now grown to about this demand but system struggles to supply this gas. In the beginning Bakhrabad gas field was thought to be lone supplier. Five wells drilled initially were targeted to supply gas to South-East Bangladesh including Chittagong. Later, Feni gas field was included in the loop. The operation of Bakhrabad gas field was very much injudicious at the early stages. No reservoir management philosophy was followed. Wells designed for 20MMCFD were made to produce 30-35 MMCFD causing extensive damage to reservoir pay sand structure. Three more wells were drilled in the major pay sand “J” in very close location. These were all professional crimes of Petrobangla management ironically dominated by incompetent geologists.

Bakhrabad gas field could continue delivering about 100-120MMCFD even now if it was not made to flow at the rate of 190-200MCFD at some stages in 1989-90. It is not that experts did not warn the authority. Reservoir expert IKM made specific recommendations. But everything was done to secure gas supply for KAFCO which signed a controversial gas supply contract with BGSL. The Bakhrabad gas fields production disaster not only caused massive damage to reservoir and subsurface as well as surface facilities of the field but it also flooded the transmission pipelines from the field with condensate water and sludge. This required massive on stream pigging operation taking lot of risks. The gas supply constraints led to suspension of gas supply to major consumers in Chittagong in 1996-97 till Ashuganj-Bakhrabad gas line was built and gas for Chittagong was made available from national gas grid. Later on in late nineties Sangu offshore came on stream as a blessing for Chittagong area. But here again we did not learn lesson from Bakhrabad disaster.

The PSC operator of Sangu was allowed to produce at much higher rate causing damage to reservoir. Consequently, the production sharply declined. The gas field, which could produce at the rate of 140MMCFD for many years, was made to produce at the rate of 180MMCFD. This has now led to a declined production of 65MMCFD and progressively going down. For this situation in Sangu it now requires additional gas diversion from national grid through Bakhrabad gas field but the required augmentation works of additional gas diversion have not been done over the years. Fortunately, the compressor station at Bakhrabad gas field is operational now otherwise matters could be still worse. The original design concept of Bakhrabad-Chittagong pipeline provided for a compressor station at Feni to augment the capacity to 500MMCFD. This can still do that. But possibly the pipeline is seriously eroded and corroded by now due to transmission of wet and dirty gas from Bakhrabad gas field.

The section from Feni to Chittagong may not support the increased velocity and pressure. This can only be checked with intelligent pigging. But best option would be to build a loopline from Feni to Chittagong along with pipeline compressor at Feni. The suction side may not be a problem. But eventually the loop should be extended to Bakhrabad or to Brahmanbaira. The present situation cannot support any new gas based power plant in Chittagong area till gas supply is shorted out. The ongoing drilling operation at Magnama may bring some good news. But gas from this prospect may not be available before 2010 at the earliest. The other efforts at tiny Semutang and Begumganj may not bring much comfort. Additional gas supply from national grid will require compressor stations at Muchai and Ashuganj. These may not be on stream before 2011. The government is not much focused on gas from Myanmar at this stage. Situation in Myanmar is not also supportive. Gas from deepwater prospect is also a far cry.

People possibly do not have correct vision about our proven reserve running out too soon. They cannot be blamed also. There is no reliable reservoir study information. All are educated guess. What is our proven reserve? You talk to three different experts .You will get three different figures. Even the major gas fields like Titas, Habiganj, Kailastilla, and Bakhrabad did not have any serious reservoir studies. We must run our fields very professionally with right professionals. These are not everyone’s piece of cake.

Energy sector failed to reach gas to Khulna region despite having substantial demand and availability of gas in Shahbajpur gas field in the region. Unocal proposed to implement WRIP in 2000. The proposal included development of the field and construction of Shahbajpur to Dighalia gas transmission pipeline and power plants in Bhola, Barisal and Khulna. Unocal proposal was not considered for approval. Bapex was given responsibility to develop Shahbajpur. But unfortunately in 7 years since then we could not even set up a gas based power plant in Bhola. If this could be done the recent power crisis following the cyclone devastation could be avoided. One only hopes the ADB assisted GSDP project will be implemented soon and gas is transported to greater Khulna division as scheduled.

Now let us discuss other fuel options. Bangladesh is believed to have substantial coal reserve. But in several decades our only success is Barapukuria. Inappropriate mining method and poor management of mining has made this a near disaster. Hundreds of crores of taka has been spent to recover a maximum of 10 percent of coal in place. No other mines are under exploitation now. Phulbari is potentially large mine. The coal is lying at a shallow depth. After extensive feasibility Asia Energy has proposed surface mining method. But our economist and environmentalist have agitated against surface mining and AEC. Their agitation triggered violence and suspended mining. The AEC proposal is still in hibernation. A high-powered committee having no mining expert is examining the draft coal mining policy for months. A poor country like Bangladesh having precious natural resources cannot remain hostage to myths and unfounded apprehensions. We need to explore and exploit our natural resources in the most optimum method. The coal must be mined without further delay. It is sheer irony that our policymakers are contemplating import coal based power plant leaving substantial coal underground.

Our coal must be made available to set up coal-based power plants to create diversity in fuel basket. About 4000MW coal based power in the next 10 years will lead us to power for all by 2020. It may be AEC or any other company but surface mining must be the mining method in case of shallow coal seams.

Generation alone will not solve problem. Bangladesh also needs substantial investment in power transmission and distribution segment. New power transmission grid is required to supplement and expand the existing grid. New transmission grid is required from Sylhet region where present stranded gas can support early power generation. If we have surplus coal based power plants in the next decade in the western parts of Bangladesh we may need a second east-west inter-connector. If the government cannot fund these, PGCB may let out shares in local stock exchange to raise capital. Private sector may also be allowed to invest in power transmission. PGCB may still remain operator. Bangladesh must also aggressively interact with neighbors for setting up regional power grid. Our peak and off peak demand vary over large extent. We may trade power at off peak when we achieve surplus. But our priority must be directed to achieve self-sufficiency.

We must come out of default culture. In developed country no one can escape without paying utility bills. For few defaulters mass suffer. Strong public opinion must be created against energy defaulters. Massive drive against defaulters and energy thieves may improve system loss and accounts receivables. Business leaders must help the moves.

All the energy sector activities must be very transparent. The identified energy sector mafias must get exemplary punishment for polluting and corrupting the sector so that in future no one dares to indulge in corruption. Future governments must realize that access to power like food, shelter and medicare is the fundamental constitutional right of the people. Major political parties in their election agenda must declare clear vision of energy issues. BERC must be allowed to play its role for regulating energy business. Bangladesh does not want mushroom growth of ‘Khamba’ business like power mafias any more.

Bangladesh may not achieve the target of power for all by 2020. But there is no harm in having such target. Without target and vision nothing can be achieved. But we need a roadmap to achieve it. If we remain committed, fair and honest the target may be deferred a little bit say 2030 but whatever we do we must do with professional excellence and commitment. Only line professionals should be listened to in making decisions. So- called academic experts must not get priority.

Bangladesh economy will soon face a serious crisis if the power situation is not sorted out. Our export commodities will lose competitive edge. Importers will lose confidence. Investors will lose incentive. Bangladesh will never be able to achieve the desired growth to alleviate poverty and drift way from Millennium Development Goals.